Thomas Frank’s Bees are in a spot of bother, lying 16th in the Premier League table after winning just five of their opening 19 top-flight games.

So the return of their England international is a welcome one, especially considering he has scored 32 goals in 68 Premier League appearances for Brentford since signing in August 2020.

Toney himself is as confident as ever that he will hit the ground running, telling Sky Sports in an interview that he feels “hungrier” and “in better shape” after his layoff.

He has also got something to prove to the club who have stood by him, adding: "Everybody at Brentford knows I will do my best to try and get the club out of the sticky patch we're in."

Here, Vodacom Soccer takes an in-depth look at Brentford’s performances with and without Toney in their team, discussing such clues to his influence as how their expected goals performance compares and how their style of play has changed during the striker’s absence.

Brentford's goalscoring

After 19 Premier League games, Brentford are struggling in 16th position. At the same time last season, they were riding high in ninth place.

A concern is their lack of goals: so far they’ve scored 26 in total (13th in the league) and their top scorer is Brian Mbeumo (seven goals).

This time last season, they had scored 32 goals of which Toney had got 13 – including a brace against Manchester City and a hat-trick against Leeds.

He ended last season as the Premier League’s third-highest scorer with 20 goals, one ahead of Mo Salah.

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Expected goals

Offensively, the underlying numbers give a clue as to Brentford’s drop in form. Whereas last season, they had significantly overscored their xG of 26.22 at game week 19 (with 32 goals), this season they have underscored it significantly (xG 33.8 but only 26 goals).

Similarly, over the whole of last season, Toney overscored his xG of 18.74 by scoring 20, underlining the importance of his clinical finishing to Brentford.

This season they’ve shown plenty of impressive build-up play, but without someone to finish the chances, it’s all rather fruitless.

Change in style

Last season, Brentford played a longer-ball style of football, averaging 26.6 accurate long balls per game (third in the Premier League).

Toney's ability in the air was key to this – he ranked sixth overall for total aerial battles won, notching up 109 successful headers.

This season, Brentford have dropped to 24 accurate long balls per match (ranking seventh).

They have had to revert to a more possession-based style, averaging 48.7% possession per match, compared to their average of 43.5% last season.

Known for breaking lines early and moving up the pitch quickly, the need for a more careful and precise build-up is dampening Brentford’s attacking ability.

There’s no doubt that Toney's return and ability to link up with players around him, both in the air and on the ground, will allow them to be much more dynamic.

Big chances

A big chance is one that a player should reasonably be expected to score, such as a one-on-one or from close range.

This season, after 19 games, Brentford have missed 36 big chances (fourth in the Premier League).

At this point last season, they had only missed 23 of these chances. This highlights Toney's ability to get shots off when chances fall his way as opposed to current Brentford strikers, who may not be as decisive (or lethal) in front of goal.

Toney averaged 2.9 shots per game last season, which is incredibly high when you consider the calibre of players around him.

Diogo Jota (2.8) and Julian Alvarez (2.9) were just below Toney last season, showing just how impressive this statistic is.

Penalties

Throughout his career, one of Toney’s standout qualities has been his penalty taking, so you’d expect him to have been particularly missed in this area. However Mbeumo, Brentford's current penalty taker, actually has a better record of 100% (3/3) this season than Toney did last year (6/7), with Toney having missed against Nick Pope in a game Newcastle ended up winning 2-1.

With Mbeumo currently injured, Toney will surely be first-choice penalty taker again. When Mbeumo returns, though, the Cameroonian might have something to say about that.

Overall

Last season, Toney ranked fourth in the Premier League on expected goals and assists with a massive 22.3.

The only three players above him, Salah, Harry Kane and Erling Haaland, were all world-class players at the top of their games.

Now, for the rest of the Premier League, facing a fresh and rested Toney with a point to prove must be a scary thought.

By Sam Herd

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