If Fulham beat Liverpool on January 24 it will be their first EFL Cup final in the club’s history.

“It’s source of pride for us to be there [in the semi-final] but we want more,” said their manager Marco Silva. “It’s still tight. We lost the first half – now we have to go for it in the second."

All the other teams have won it previously, with Middlesbrough’s final victory coming 20 years ago when they beat Bolton Wanderers.

Chelsea, who have won the League Cup five times, and nine-time winners Liverpool are the clear favourites to meet in the final, as they did in 2022.

But both semi-finals are still up for grabs.

Here, Vodacom Soccer outlines six key factors that could decide the final outcome.

Chelsea’s wasted chances

Chelsea's ability to underscore their expected goals has been an issue for them all season.

Against Middlesbrough, they accumulated an xG of 2.17 without finding the back of the net once.

In the Premier League, Chelsea have a total xG of 39.9 – second only to Liverpool – but have only found the net 34 times.

One explanation may be because their squad is so young. The average age of their starting XIs this season is 24 years, 352 days – the third youngest in the Premier League.

Nowhere is a lack of experience more revealing than in front of goal

Middlesbrough’s away strength

Middlesbrough need a massive performance at Stamford Bridge on January 23 to see off Chelsea – but some stats are in their favour.

Interestingly, in the Championship, Boro’s form is much better away from home than at the Riverside Stadium.

When the table only includes games played at home, Middlesbrough sit down in 16th. But when it’s away games only, they make a massive jump up to sixth, which may increase the confidence of the players.

They’ve also got history to encourage them: the last time Middlesbrough reached the last four of the EFL Cup in 2004, they went all the way. Boro fans should be quietly excited.

Cole Palmer

The exciting 21-year-old attacking midfielder was undoubtedly Chelsea’s main threat in the first leg, even if he missed a few big chances (he racked up an xG of 1.25 without scoring).

Chelsea bought the youngster off Premier League rivals Man City in the summer for £45million, which looks like a right bargain going on his form this season.

He has contributed 10 goals and seven assists in 24 games in all competitions, while also scoring four out of four penalties. This could be a boost if the second leg ends 1-0 to Chelsea and the tie is decided by a penalty shoot-out.

Jurgen Klopp's game management

Klopp's tactical fluidity must be credited for Liverpool's success in the first leg. In the 56th minute, he subbed on Gakpo and Darwin Nunez – and within 15 minutes, the game had turned around. First Nunez assisted Jones, then three minutes later the two subs combined to make the score 2-1, with Nunez getting his second assist of the night.

This season, Nunez has been brought off the bench to great effect in the Premier League, providing four goals and two assists as a sub this season.

The question now is does Nunez deserve to start the second leg, especially with Mo Salah away at AFCON? His stats off the bench make it clear why Klopp utilises him this way.

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Fulham’s home comforts

“At home, with our fans behind us, it's going to be a great night for Fulham Football Club," said Marco Silva when questioned about the second leg of the tie with Liverpool.

Fulham have picked up 18 of their 24 points at home in the Premier League this season.

They did a great job of staying in the game at a hostile Anfield, particularly in the second half.

Overall, Liverpool had 21 shots to Fulham's six, but the most important thing for Fulham is that the score only ended up 2-1, despite Liverpool dominating possession (67%) and xG (1.77 to Fulham's 0.29).

This was in large part due to Joao Palhinha, who totalled an impressive five successful tackles away at Liverpool and was Fulham's second highest rated player on the night after Andre Pereirra (7.9).

Battle of the fans

The famous Anfield crowd definitely helped Liverpool push on to victory in the second half – and afterwards, Klopp paid tribute to the noise they had made to get them back in the game when, early in the second half, they looked to be struggling.

The question now is whether Fulham’s fans can have the same effect at Craven Cottage.

It should be a very special atmosphere as Fulham go all-out to try to break their cup duck.

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